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Home » Char’s October 2023 Blog – Market Update

Char’s October 2023 Blog – Market Update

Stay Up-To-Date on Industry Trends & Forecasts

 

Did You Know?

  • We’re living in the middle of some sort of vast emotional, rational, and spiritual crisis. It is as if people across society have lost the ability to see and understand one another, thus producing a culture that can be brutalizing and isolating” David Brook
  • The word HATE has 4 letters……but so does LOVE.
    • ENEMIES has 7 letters……but so does FRIENDS.
    • LYING has 5 letters……but so does TRUTH.
    • CRY has 3 letters……but so does JOY.
    • NEGATIVITY has 10 letters……but so does POSITIVITY.
  • As adults, we have choices. In a world where you can be anything, BE KIND.
  • U.S. insurers paid out $99 billion in claims related to natural disasters in 2022. As a result, premiums rose by an average of 21% from May 2022 to May 2023 – ranging from a low of 10% to 35% – dwarfing the 12% increase during 2021. (NY TIMES)
  • Almost 18% of US homes listed in September had price reductions, the highest level since November 2022. (WSJ)
  • 33.12% of all sales nationally of single-family homes over $1 million in the second quarter of 2023 were cash deals. (ATTOM)

 

Trends & Forecasts

Tools

Managing Financial Life:

“For the fifth consecutive week, mortgage rates rose as ongoing market and geopolitical uncertainty continues to increase. The good news is that the economy and incomes continue to grow at a solid pace, but the housing market remains fraught with significant affordability constraints. As a result, purchase demand remains at a three-decade low.” FHLMC, 10/12/2023

Preparing to Move Forward

With the uncertainty of how the market will be in the 4th quarter of 2023, it is worth suggesting that using this time, as a buyer and a seller, to get your ducks in a row so you are ready when your opportunity arises is worth the effort. The market will change in 2024. Will you be ready? Have questions? I’m here to help

For Sellers:

For Buyers:

Market Update

Buying a home in this challenging, changing, uncertain market may look unwise to some. But even faced with high interest rates and a low selection of inventory to choose from, buyers are still buying. You may have heard of the 5 D’s of real estate, the drivers that never go away: Diapers (kids!), Diamonds (marriage!), Diplomas (graduation + first jobs), Divorce. (you get it….) and Death (inevitable). Even those over-bidding – may be watching the most critical of all data-points: The US is grossly under-built. The population will grow by around 5 million by 2030 which means we need at least 10 million more homes by then. Add in $70 trillion of generational wealth redistribution and the US economy expected to grow from $26 trillion today to $35 trillion by 2030. Then add in the aging housing inventory requiring renovation or rebuilding….and Acts of God – tornadoes, fires, floods, etc. It seems securing a property today may be the wisest long-term investment of all.

This month, we had fun looking at some of the extreme year over year changes in the different communities in Sonoma County. For example, In Sonoma Valley, the number of pending sales in September of 2023 was 79% higher than in September of 2022. In Healdsburg, the median sales price differential from September 2022 vs. 2023 was a whopping 195%. And, in Windsor, the Days on Market dropped by 61% year over year. While these statistics are often dramatic enough to garner media attention, it’s best to remember that these are very small snapshots in time. Looking at the county as a whole we can get a more balanced and realistic view of the greater market – changes from 4% in median sales prices to a minus 18% in number of sales.

Looking forward it seems that the big uncertainty for the rest of the year is whether or not the Feds will raise interest rates again or hold where we are. While this may only have a marginal effect on some buyers – especially in the high end that often pay cash, the overall effect this continues to have is a sense of uncertainty and instability.

Please note, all information is for single family residences in the Sonoma Valley as reported to BAREIS, the local multiple listing service through Broker Metrics.

This BLOG is intended to provide information and content of value. Suggestions about what you would like to see more of, feel free to email me and certainly feel free to forward to friends and family.

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